In 2020, India had an estimated population of 138 crore people that is 1.5 per cent behind China. Now, by 2025, China is set to lose its 'most populous' tag to India.
Context
In 2020, India had an estimated population of 138 crore people that is 1.5 per cent behind China. Now, by 2025, China is set to lose its 'most populous' tag to India.
What are the population growth trends of China?
- According to, the official census data in the decade up to 2020, the China’s population grew at its slowest rate since the 1950s.
- Falling growth rate: It stands at 141.2 crore people, with the growth rate falling for the fourth consecutive year.
- The country’s population has grown by 5.34 per cent over the past decade.
- The country grew 0.53 per cent in the last 10 years which was the slowest of any decade since the 1950s.
- Fertility rate: The country’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.3, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Demographic Dividend: The country’s working population, between ages 15 and 59, is now 89.43 crore or 63.35 per cent of the total which is down by 6.79 per cent from 2010.
- Positive: A ray of hope is the greater proportion of the children 14 years or younger, who are now 25.38 crore or 17.95 per cent of population which is up by 1.35 per cent from 2010.
- This rise has been credited to the China relaxing its strict one-child policy in 2016 and which allowed two children per family.
One-child policy
- It was put into force in the late 1970s.
- It helped the country avert severe food and water shortages by preventing up to 40 crore people from being born.
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- Urbanization: The country has been urbanized in the last decade up by 14.21 percentage points, with 63.89 per cent living in urban areas. Its rural population fell to 36.11 per cent.
Concerns related to a shrinking population for China
- Economic Challenge: It will be difficult for sustaining China’s high growth as fewer young people joining the workforce and the existing population rapidly ageing.
- The decline in young population in a country creates labour shortages, which have a major detrimental impact on the economy.
- China still depends on labour-intensive manufacturing and farming. A drop in demographic dividend could thus hurt China and other developing nations like India.
- Burden on exchequer: More older people means that demands for healthcare and pensions can soar.
Some Chinese government initiatives
- Chinese government announced that it would increase the retirement age by a few months every year.
- The government is also expected to increase incentives for couples to have more children.
